Game theory: A new tool to decode Indian history?
The meme above and its import is well known. India is the only surviving original cradle of civilization that has existed as a continuous culture and polity through all eras of history- Bronze age, Iron age, Ancient, Classical age, Medieval and modern times. But what unique characteristics of Indian people and culture made this miracle possible? People usually give supernatural or overtly emotional explanations. But what if there are truly objective reasons for the Indian miracle? Game theory offers some answers.
Game theory is a new and applied branch of mathematics that has found enormous significance in economics, evolutionary biology, politics, geopolitics and even behavioral sciences. It asks a very unique and fundamental question that is relevant to humanity: What is the best survival strategy? How do you survive and thrive in a world where so many selfish enemies and competitors abound? What strategy must an individual, a society, a group, a political party, a country or even a species adopt in order to survive in such a harsh world?
And yet!! And yet after all these decades of calculations and simulations, Game theorists have completely ignored the single greatest survivor in the mega chess board of history. The civilization state called Bhāratavarṣa. What richer source of data is there for a Game theorist to empirically map historical survival strategies than the 5000 year continuous epic story of India? Why did India survive the cruel tests of Time while most other cultures vanished completely? What are the unique traits of ancient Indians that saved them from cultural annhialation?
So we turn to the Game theory question- What is the best survival strategy on this planet? Game Theorists created many dozens of programmes that followed different strategies of engagement-for example, a program that always strikes its opponents, a program that always tries to cooperate, a programme that strikes every second or third time, a programme that mirrors the actions of its opponent etc and so on). They then made these programmes compete with each other in simulation games. After hundreds of iterations of games, they checked to see which programme scored the highest game points and which scored the lowest. The results were astonishing to say the least. The winning programme in all the simulation experiments was 'Tit For Tat'. What exactly was teh behavior of this programme? This best mathematically proven survival strategy is this-
1.BE NICE. Have a good moral code in conflict. Do not be the first to start a conflict.
2.BE willing to Retaliate. TIT FOR TAT is the best strategy. Carrot and stick effect on enemies
3.BE capable of forgiving enemies some of the time. This avoids total war situations, prevents useless pyrrhic conflicts and mutually assured destruction.
Dont you think, on closer look, that this is more or less the strategy India followed? If you test this strategy using data from Indian history, the conclusion is both mind blowing and yet crystal clear. This is the strategy Indians have unconsciously applied for thousands of years in their numerous conflicts with invaders. Look at some examples!
1.Be nice - India is the only country that always followed a strict code of war since the very beginning. Breaking these rules was considered dishonorable and worse than death by Indian Rulers. You won't find a single burned city in Indian archaeology. No mass genocides of civilians or enslavements or "scorched earth wars". No mass killing of PoWs. No harming of farmers or burning of forest lands. Specific time for fighting. No striking from behind. And so on and on, elaborate rules existed. Even after the Turkic invasions, though the code was rendered impractical, it is remarkable That Indian kings never stooped to the barbaric levels of the Turkic sultanates even when they occasionally won. There is no retaliatory equivalent to the horrors unleashed on Chittorgarh or Hampi or Nalanda. This unique Indian behavior goes way back into the bronze age when Mesopotamians were waging the most gruesome total war. Colonial Archaeologists were completely puzzled by the absolute lack of evidence of violent siege & sack warfare in the dozens of Indus valley cities(3300-1900 BCE) . No great Mediterranean murals and sculptures depicting warfare and executions. They were comparing India with the standards of Mesopotamian and Egyptian warfare. So much so that they concluded Harappans were a peaceful people who had never seen war! The truth is they had a sophisticated code of war unlike the Mesopotamians. The Arya code as opposed to the Assyrian code of war (the latter which the rest of the world always followed and still mostly does). If you want to understand this highly civilized code of war, I reccomend the book 'War in Ancient India' by Ramachandra Dikshitar (1944)
2. Be willing to Retaliate - Do I need to elaborate? Mandhata Yauvanashva destroying the Druhyu invaders in early Harappan times (3000-2600BCE)and triggering massive Indo-European migrations, Sudasa Bharata defeating and exiling the ten tribes of Dasarajna war(1900BCE), Srnjaya Bharata and Rjrasva Angiras defeating Zoroaster and the Proto-Persians, Porus putting an end to the unstoppable Alexander's invasion, Chandragupta destroying the Scythian invaders and Skandagupta holding back the Huns, Yashodharman crushing the same Huns who even humbled Romans and Sassanians, Bappa Rawal defeating the undefeated Arabs who wiped Persia and Byzantium, The Rayas retaliating against the Turkis and protecting south India for 250 years, Shivaji and the Marathas retaliating against the Turko-Mughals and wiping their empire from the world map, Mahadaji Shinde retaliating against the Afghan savagery during Panipat and liberating Delhi again and Ranjit Singh continuing the good work against Afghans.
3. Be willing to forgive: This again has been a defining trait of Indians. The ability to occasionally ignore infractions. The ability to assimilate foreigners and absorb then into the infinite richness of native society & culture. Ability to avoid slipping into a Total war situation with powerful enemies. Again, the examples are numerous. The Scythians, Huns and Kushans were completely Indianized. Yashodharman forgave Mihirakula the Hun and spared his life. Rajput-Mughal relations was also an example of this avoidance of total war. Sufism represents the imbibition of Indian philosophy by Islamic writers. However, overuse of this strategy has caused immense strategic damage in the last 1000 years. Disproportionate Forgiving without Retaliation is a guaranteed loser strategy. One must retaliate most of the time and forgive some of the time- if one wishes to survive. The Rayas not eliminating the Deccan Sultanates even when they had chances, Marathas not eliminating the Mughals, Nizam of Hyderabad and Hyder Ali, failure to place Wodeyars back in the throne even though they easily could have. The earlier Mughals like Aurangzeb and Furrukhsiyar allowing and freely enabling the rise of untaxed British commerce and monopoly and so on. Even today, the Indian Republic continues to unduly and excessively forgive it's enemies.
Conclusion- India survived the horrors of the last thousand years because it was blessed with leaders who were willing to take HUGE risks to retaliate TIT FOR TAT against the barbarians. Rayas, Shivaji, Bajirao, Ranjit Singh, Mahadaji Shinde etc. The modern Indian republic is FAR more powerful yet demonstrates an absolute inability bordering on cowardice to retaliate against its enemies.
What do you think? Is Indian history an empirical validation of Game theory? Should Indians in turn adopt newer wisdom from Game Theory and make course corrections in our future trajectory?
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